A nomogram for predicting lymph node metastasis in superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SESCC) is defined as carcinoma with mucosal or submucosal invasion, regardless of regional lymph node metastasis (LNM). The lymph node status is not only a key factor to determine the training strategy, but also the most important prognostic factor in esophageal cancer. In this study, we establish a clinical nomogram for predicting LNM in patients with SESCC. A predictive model was established based on the training cohort composed of 711 patients who underwent esophagectomy for SESCC from December 2009 to June 2018. A prospective cohort of 203 patients from June 2018 to January 2019 was used for validation. Favorable calibration and well-fitted decision curve analysis were conducted and good discrimination was observed (concordance index C-index, 0.860; 95% confidence interval CI, 0.825–0.894) through internal validation. The external validation cohort presented good discrimination (C-index, 0.916; 95% CI, 0.860–0.971). This model may facilitate the prediction of LNM in patients with SESCCs.